Consciousness as Structured Probability: A Physical Framework for the Hard Problem
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) July 5, 2026 Spencer Howie
Consciousness can be placed on a graded physical scale rather than treated as an all-or-nothing binary. A Consciousness Index, ranging from 0 to 100, is defined using the Consciousness Potential Phi from an existing framework. The index rises linearly through known sub-human biological systems, with human waking consciousness near 40 to 50. Empirical tests across two dementia EEG cohorts (n=266, with one excluded) and a macaque ECoG dataset (n=2) confirm predicted sleep-stage ordering and replicate two of four brain-connectivity components in dementia. However, the scalar Phi shows no advantage over standard band-power measures for classification. The hard problem of why any physical structure yields subjective experience remains unsolved, but the framework provides a measurable scale with falsifiable predictions.