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Thomas Lumley

2 papers in the library · 328 citations · publishing 2021

Papers

Blinding and expectancy confounds in psychedelic randomized controlled trials

Expert Review of Clinical Pharmacology May 26, 2021 Suresh Muthukumaraswamy, Anna Forsyth, Thomas Lumley 312 citations

Psychedelic drugs like psilocybin, LSD, and ketamine show promise for treating mental health disorders, but their effectiveness in randomized controlled trials may be overstated. Previous research indicates that participants in psychedelic trials often become unblinded—they can tell whether they received the drug or a placebo—and may have strong expectations of improvement. A systematic review of trials from 1990 to 2020 found that most did not measure pre-trial expectancy or check whether blinding was successful. The authors argue that reported treatment effect sizes are likely overestimated due to these confounds. They recommend routine measurement of de-blinding and expectancy, careful trial design, and caution when interpreting existing effect size estimates.

Blinding and Expectancy Confounds in Psychedelic Randomised Controlled Trials

March 8, 2021 Suresh Muthukumaraswamy, Anna Forsyth, Thomas Lumley 16 citations preprint

Effect sizes reported in randomized controlled trials of psychedelic drugs such as psilocybin, LSD, and ketamine for mental health disorders are likely overestimated because participants often become unblinded and develop strong expectations of improvement. Systematic reviews of these trials show that researchers have not measured or reported expectancy or de-blinding. To obtain accurate estimates, future trials should routinely measure these confounds and adjust effect sizes accordingly. Caution is urged when interpreting existing results.