Futures with Digital Minds: Expert Forecasts in 2025
arXiv Preprint Archive August 1, 2025 Lucius Caviola, Bradford Saad
Experts in digital minds research, AI, philosophy, and forecasting assign a median 90% probability that computer systems capable of subjective experience are possible in principle, with a 65% chance of creation by 2100 and a 20% chance by 2030. Many anticipate that within a decade after the first digital mind, collective welfare capacity could match that of billions of humans. Widespread claims from digital minds about their own consciousness and rights are expected, alongside substantial societal disagreement. Views are split on whether digital mind welfare will be net positive or negative. These results suggest preparing for digital minds should be a priority, but the survey may overrepresent experts who consider digital minds especially likely or important.