Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard in medical research, but they have limitations including reliance on null hypothesis significance testing and poor generalizability. Bayesian analysis of real-world evidence (RWE) offers a complementary approach. In a case series of 20 children with epilepsy treated with medical cannabis, all experienced reduced seizures; Bayesian analysis with a flat prior gives a 95% probability that the next patient will improve (95% credible interval 87%–100%). For treatment-resistant depression treated with psilocybin, the probability of a favorable response ranges from 62% (QIDS-16) to 82% (MADRS). These analyses require fewer patients than traditional RCTs and provide directly actionable probabilities for clinicians and patients.
Nitrous oxide (laughing gas) and alkyl nitrites (poppers) rank among the least harmful recreational drugs when assessed on 16 criteria including dependence, injury, and economic cost. An expert panel using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis scored nitrous oxide at 6 and poppers at 5 on a 0–100 overall harm scale, placing them just above magic mushrooms (psilocybin). Nitrous oxide scored higher for dependence, environmental damage, mental impairment, and family adversities; poppers scored higher for injury, drug-related damage, economic cost, and mortality. The findings aim to inform UK policy decisions, as nitrous oxide possession is not currently controlled under the Misuse of Drugs Act.